Sunday, 29 June 2008

Coming housing bubble in India

The housing bubble is imminnet upon us in India if we still consider the media reports, that this will not happen, to be true. Media is still feeding us the news that the buying a house at this moment is still a good option and one should buy a house now otherwise one would never be able to do so.
What they are doing is that they are either following ostrich's policy or working for builder's lobby to further its interest.
But we can see the signs clearly in India.
  1. sky-rocket growth of property prices in last 2-3 years
  2. Interest rates have been rising,
  3. Rising inflations; inflation has been highest in last 15 years this will definitely force RBI to either increase interest rates or hold on where they are.
  4. rising oil and other commodity prices.
  5. Elections are on the corner this will force govt to take policy decision which are more populist than good for economy creating more unfavourable conditions for economy and for real estate industry
  6. US have already gone into recession that would dampen the sentiments (If I am not wrong it has already done so in India) and rest of the western world is following US
  7. IT, the main power house for grown for last decade is showing sign for slowing down considerably, putting less money into pockets of employees.
  8. stock markets showing bearish signs
  9. slow overall growth in corporate earnings
  10. short-sighted real estate industry, which is bent on making hay while sun shines than ensuring a steady and long term growth for industry. If people are not greedy enough they will not raise prices disproportionately, instead value properties rationally and realisticall so the actual users can buy. But because of the short sightedness of the industry prices have gone out of control and buyers are no more interested.

Because of these very reasons, the real estate prices would crash in India and by 2010, the price would be realistic.

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